Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008066 0.009101 0.010236 0.011574 0.013113 0.014831 0.016900
2024-10-20 0.006177 0.007513 0.009106 0.011157 0.013743 0.016917 0.021141
2024-10-27 0.005179 0.006613 0.008419 0.010883 0.014190 0.018523 0.024706
2024-11-03 0.004591 0.006098 0.008083 0.010924 0.014941 0.020502 0.028932
2024-11-10 0.004280 0.005885 0.008087 0.011376 0.016252 0.023352 0.034732
2024-11-17 0.003843 0.005439 0.007700 0.011203 0.016607 0.024823 0.038644
2024-11-24 0.003541 0.005145 0.007489 0.011244 0.017257 0.026781 0.043560
2024-12-01 0.003218 0.004785 0.007136 0.011013 0.017433 0.027979 0.047346
2024-12-08 0.003047 0.004635 0.007083 0.011242 0.018363 0.030505 0.053785
2024-12-15 0.002844 0.004416 0.006896 0.011224 0.018864 0.032340 0.059219
2024-12-22 0.002572 0.004061 0.006458 0.010735 0.018480 0.032542 0.061554
2024-12-29 0.002410 0.003873 0.006277 0.010668 0.018839 0.034134 0.066854
2025-01-05 0.002363 0.003878 0.006431 0.011228 0.020453 0.038379 0.078481
2025-01-12 0.002160 0.003601 0.006077 0.010830 0.020204 0.038954 0.082389
2025-01-19 0.001999 0.003385 0.005810 0.010565 0.020178 0.039968 0.087435
2025-01-26 0.001898 0.003267 0.005709 0.010604 0.020767 0.042341 0.096068
2025-02-02 0.001860 0.003259 0.005806 0.011042 0.022231 0.046808 0.110646
2025-02-09 0.001746 0.003103 0.005614 0.010875 0.022380 0.048346 0.118109
2025-02-16 0.001668 0.003006 0.005527 0.010914 0.022985 0.051017 0.129085
2025-02-23 0.001566 0.002857 0.005325 0.010691 0.022967 0.052192 0.136173
2025-03-02 0.001521 0.002815 0.005330 0.010912 0.024001 0.056093 0.151843
2025-03-09 0.001454 0.002724 0.005231 0.010895 0.024467 0.058626 0.164024
2025-03-16 0.001346 0.002546 0.004940 0.010421 0.023772 0.058041 0.166508